Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Assessment of the program: offense.

As promised, I am about to review the prognosis for next year's offense, as I see it right now. I'll go position-by-position. The defense will come later.

To begin, we'll start with the offensive line, where the games are won and lost.

Offensive Line:

Auburn will lose Jason Bosley and Tyronne Green. That will leave the Tigers having to find a center and a guard, as well as a new vocal leader (Bosley).

Returning starters -  Lee Ziemba (OT), Ryan Pugh (OT, C) and Mike Berry (OG).

Auburn will likely replace Bosley with Pugh at center. This leaves Andrew McCain to fill the tackle spot and Byron Isom to fill the other guard spot - both saw significant playing time this year.

The starting lineup will likely look like this:
Left Tackle - Lee Ziemba (Jr next year)
Left Guard - Mike Berry (Jr)
Center - Ryan Pugh (Jr)
Right Guard - Byron Isom (Jr)
Right Tackle - Andrew McCain (Sr)

There is also the possibility that Jermaine Johnson could get in the mix. He is a JUCO transfer who was didn't make his grades this year for the Tigers. He's huge at 6'6" 330 and has been a five-star prospect since coming out of high school in 2007. He will likely be a tackle and should become a starter pretty quickly. 
There are three incoming freshmen lineman as of right now, as well. Only Andre Harris has the needed size to start right away, at 6'4" 327. He is probably a little overweight, actually, and probably will redshirt for that reason.
I think the O-line will be much better next year than they were this year, largely due to the style of preparation they will experience in the off-season. They will open up holes that should have been there this year. This last year, they tried to learn a new blocking style. That would be the equivalent of trying to turn a cornerback into a wide receiver - it's not that much different but corner's often just can't catch.

Running Back:

Auburn will lose Brad Lester and Tristan Davis. Both have been significant contributors over their careers, but in different ways.

Returning Starters - Ben Tate, Eric Smith and Mario Fannin

I think Fannin is the guy to watch. He is the only one of the three who can really make big plays all on his own. Don't get me wrong, the other two can make big plays, too, but might need a little more help from the offensive line. 

The starting lineup will likely look like this:
Tailback - Mario Fannin (Jr next year) then Ben Tate (Jr)
"Fullback" - Eric Smith (So) [[this is the Ronnie Brown, Carl Stewart position]]

Auburn will also see two incoming freshmen who could likely make an impact, in Onterrio McCalebb and Rodney Scott. Both are highly touted and have breakaway speed. McCalebb is probably more of a scat back and Scott is like the typical Auburn back - he'll probably be the guy once Tate and Fannin are gone. 
There are also two incoming freshman listed as athletes. They are LaDarius Perkins and Travante Stallworth. Both could make an impact somewhere on the field, but expect Stallworth to be in the defensive secondary.

Wide Receiver:

Auburn will lose its primary receivers, Rod Smith and Robert Dunn, and will also lose James Swinton. Dunn will be sorely missed in the punt return game. Smith was easily the most consistent wideout over his career.

Returning Starters - Montez Billings.

This will be an interesting position next year. Billings will almost certainly be the posession receiver next year, taking the place of Smith. But Auburn will also have Philip Pierre-Louis, a 5'8" 180 guy who is lightning in a bottle. He's probably the most electrifying guy on the team, but he injured his knee on the first play of the season. Others who are likely to be top contributors are Tim Hawthorne, Terrell Zachery, Quindarius Carr and Darvin Adams.

The starting lineup will likely look like this:
X wideout - Montez Billings (Sr next year)
Y wideout - Tim Hawthorne (Jr)
Z wideout - Philip Pierre-Louis (Fr - because of a medical redshirt in all likelihood)

Of course, with the wide receivers, being a starter is simply that: the guy who starts the game. I would expect that everyone will see some time, most notably Zachery and Adams. There will also be true freshman Cameron Kenney, but I don't think he'll see the field next year.

Tight End:

Auburn doesn't lose anybody. Tommy Trott injured his knee against UGA, but should be back in time to be a contributor next year.

Returning Starters - Trott and Gabe Mckenzie.

The starting lineup will likely look like this:
Tight End - Tommy Trott (Sr next year)
Tight End - Philip Lutzenkirchen (True FR)

I expect Trott to be the blocking TE and Lutzenkirchen to the receiving TE. Lutz is the No. 5 TE prospect in the country this year and has the best hands of any TE in high school this year. Vance Smith may also see some time, as might Mckenzie if Antonio Coleman doesn't go pro. In fact, Mckenzie may be the No. 2 TE in that case and Lutz may redshirt.

Quarterback:

Auburn loses nobody.

Returning Starters - Kodi Burns and Chris Todd.

The starting lineup will likely look like this:
Quartberback - Kodi Burns (Jr next year)

This could get interesting. I think after this year, Burns will be the guy. But look for Todd (a rising senior) to make a push, especially if Tubbs has held him out of practice to rest his arm like he said he was going to do. If he can rehab his arm and get it back to where it was before he hurt it, he may be the best we have. I understand that he was pushing Graham Harrell for the starting nod at Texas Tech at one time. I'm not sure we've seen the last of him and if he does see the field again, look for him to be very good. 
Also, look for Neil Caudle to be the backup if Todd can't do it. Barrett Trotter may push him for this spot. And don't forget about incoming freshman, Ray Cotton. But I think the coaches would be wise to redshirt Cotton and begin grooming him into the QB of the future.

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