Copied from a rivals post
Teddy Heffner on Talk Radio in Columbia makes a good point in reference to all-purpose yards in that a crappy team that gets scored on all the time with a guy who returns 5 kicks a game can get 100 all purpose yds at 20yds a return. It is a good point but it has resulted in many, like Teddy, dismissing much of CJ's production because of the term "all-purpose" that goes with his yardage and the scenario above that they associate with it.
In order to relieve CJ of the all-purpose "bias", what I have done below is take all of Spiller’s kick returns and subtract 20yds from each one. In other words, if he had a return for 50yds, I subtracted 20 and only counted 30yds in his stats. Call the first 20 return yards "junk yards" because they are common for returners, so let's not count them. For example, the player returning 5 kicks at 20 yards a pop who gets credit for 100 all purpose yards would actually get credit for 0 yards in my revised numbers for Spiller below. Fair enough?
Spiller has 15 kick returns. If we take away 20yds per return that results in 300 yds that will be removed from his total yardage below. For comparison sake, I added the stats for the other 2 front runners in the Heisman race without altering Ingram and Tebow's stats in any way. Here they are.
------- Touches -- Total Yds -- TDs--- Yds Per Touch -- Touches Per TD --
Spiller-- 177 ------ 1,494* ---- 12 ------- 8.4 ------------ 14.7 ---
Ingram--- 199 ------ 1,364 ----- 11 ------- 6.8 ------------ 18.0 ---
Tebow---- 328 ------ 2,109 ----- 20 ------- 6.4 ------------ 16.4 ---
*Note ? 300 kick return yards of CJ's 1,794 total yds were removed per my explanation above.
What jumps out at you? Here's my list...
1. First of all it is the yards per touch. He is producing approximately 30% more yards per touch than Tebow and Ingram, even when you don’t count those 300 return yards. If I had included those return yards he would have averaged 10.1 yds per touch.
2. Look at the number of touches that result in a TD for each player. CJ scores a touchdown every 14.7 times he touches the ball. It takes Ingram 18 touches to get a touch down and Tebow 16.4 touches to get one. That said, which player's hands would you want the ball in when you need a score?
3. Keep in mind Tebow’s stats include passing yards & passing TDs which significantly skew things when comparing a QB to any other skill position. A good QB's total yards and TDs typically triple those of a running back or receiver. That makes Spiller’s numbers in comparison to a Heisman QB even more impressive. CJ still smokes him in TDs produced per touch and yds gained per touch even though I removed 300 of CJ's kick return yards.
4. CJ Spiller has been hurt since game one. As a result, he has played very sparingly against teams that we blew out. He had only 5 carries against Middle Tenn St., 9 carries against Wake Forest & 5 carries against Coastal Carolina. What that means is that his stats are not padded in games we played weaker opponents. His stats above were compiled almost entirely against our best opponents in what amounts to about 6 games, not 9.
5. Building on #4... CJ’s best games have come against our greatest competition. For example, of the 3 opponents Clemson played currently ranked in the top 12 (Georgia Tech, TCU & Miami), CJ Spiller averaged 177 yds from scrimmage per game with an average of 264 all-purpose yards per game and 4 TDs. Here are his Yds From Scrimmage/All Purpose Yds/ TDs for each: GT: 156/256/1, TCU: 191/227/1, Miami: 185/310/2. Find another player in the country that has numbers even remotely close to that CONSISTENTLY against top 10 competition.
Given the above stats, I think it becomes even more clear who the best player in college football is. Who would you pay the most to see play? Who makes you hold your breath the most, EVERY TIME he touches the ball? Who steps up for his team the most in the games that matter the most? Whose hands do you most want the ball in if you have one play left in the game and need a score? That is who should win the Heisman trophy.
Teddy Heffner on Talk Radio in Columbia makes a good point in reference to all-purpose yards in that a crappy team that gets scored on all the time with a guy who returns 5 kicks a game can get 100 all purpose yds at 20yds a return. It is a good point but it has resulted in many, like Teddy, dismissing much of CJ's production because of the term "all-purpose" that goes with his yardage and the scenario above that they associate with it.
In order to relieve CJ of the all-purpose "bias", what I have done below is take all of Spiller’s kick returns and subtract 20yds from each one. In other words, if he had a return for 50yds, I subtracted 20 and only counted 30yds in his stats. Call the first 20 return yards "junk yards" because they are common for returners, so let's not count them. For example, the player returning 5 kicks at 20 yards a pop who gets credit for 100 all purpose yards would actually get credit for 0 yards in my revised numbers for Spiller below. Fair enough?
Spiller has 15 kick returns. If we take away 20yds per return that results in 300 yds that will be removed from his total yardage below. For comparison sake, I added the stats for the other 2 front runners in the Heisman race without altering Ingram and Tebow's stats in any way. Here they are.
------- Touches -- Total Yds -- TDs--- Yds Per Touch -- Touches Per TD --
Spiller-- 177 ------ 1,494* ---- 12 ------- 8.4 ------------ 14.7 ---
Ingram--- 199 ------ 1,364 ----- 11 ------- 6.8 ------------ 18.0 ---
Tebow---- 328 ------ 2,109 ----- 20 ------- 6.4 ------------ 16.4 ---
*Note ? 300 kick return yards of CJ's 1,794 total yds were removed per my explanation above.
What jumps out at you? Here's my list...
1. First of all it is the yards per touch. He is producing approximately 30% more yards per touch than Tebow and Ingram, even when you don’t count those 300 return yards. If I had included those return yards he would have averaged 10.1 yds per touch.
2. Look at the number of touches that result in a TD for each player. CJ scores a touchdown every 14.7 times he touches the ball. It takes Ingram 18 touches to get a touch down and Tebow 16.4 touches to get one. That said, which player's hands would you want the ball in when you need a score?
3. Keep in mind Tebow’s stats include passing yards & passing TDs which significantly skew things when comparing a QB to any other skill position. A good QB's total yards and TDs typically triple those of a running back or receiver. That makes Spiller’s numbers in comparison to a Heisman QB even more impressive. CJ still smokes him in TDs produced per touch and yds gained per touch even though I removed 300 of CJ's kick return yards.
4. CJ Spiller has been hurt since game one. As a result, he has played very sparingly against teams that we blew out. He had only 5 carries against Middle Tenn St., 9 carries against Wake Forest & 5 carries against Coastal Carolina. What that means is that his stats are not padded in games we played weaker opponents. His stats above were compiled almost entirely against our best opponents in what amounts to about 6 games, not 9.
5. Building on #4... CJ’s best games have come against our greatest competition. For example, of the 3 opponents Clemson played currently ranked in the top 12 (Georgia Tech, TCU & Miami), CJ Spiller averaged 177 yds from scrimmage per game with an average of 264 all-purpose yards per game and 4 TDs. Here are his Yds From Scrimmage/All Purpose Yds/ TDs for each: GT: 156/256/1, TCU: 191/227/1, Miami: 185/310/2. Find another player in the country that has numbers even remotely close to that CONSISTENTLY against top 10 competition.
Given the above stats, I think it becomes even more clear who the best player in college football is. Who would you pay the most to see play? Who makes you hold your breath the most, EVERY TIME he touches the ball? Who steps up for his team the most in the games that matter the most? Whose hands do you most want the ball in if you have one play left in the game and need a score? That is who should win the Heisman trophy.
No comments:
Post a Comment