Friday, November 13, 2009
Trovon Reed to Auburn
CJ Spiller deserves the Heisman
Teddy Heffner on Talk Radio in Columbia makes a good point in reference to all-purpose yards in that a crappy team that gets scored on all the time with a guy who returns 5 kicks a game can get 100 all purpose yds at 20yds a return. It is a good point but it has resulted in many, like Teddy, dismissing much of CJ's production because of the term "all-purpose" that goes with his yardage and the scenario above that they associate with it.
In order to relieve CJ of the all-purpose "bias", what I have done below is take all of Spiller’s kick returns and subtract 20yds from each one. In other words, if he had a return for 50yds, I subtracted 20 and only counted 30yds in his stats. Call the first 20 return yards "junk yards" because they are common for returners, so let's not count them. For example, the player returning 5 kicks at 20 yards a pop who gets credit for 100 all purpose yards would actually get credit for 0 yards in my revised numbers for Spiller below. Fair enough?
Spiller has 15 kick returns. If we take away 20yds per return that results in 300 yds that will be removed from his total yardage below. For comparison sake, I added the stats for the other 2 front runners in the Heisman race without altering Ingram and Tebow's stats in any way. Here they are.
------- Touches -- Total Yds -- TDs--- Yds Per Touch -- Touches Per TD --
Spiller-- 177 ------ 1,494* ---- 12 ------- 8.4 ------------ 14.7 ---
Ingram--- 199 ------ 1,364 ----- 11 ------- 6.8 ------------ 18.0 ---
Tebow---- 328 ------ 2,109 ----- 20 ------- 6.4 ------------ 16.4 ---
*Note ? 300 kick return yards of CJ's 1,794 total yds were removed per my explanation above.
What jumps out at you? Here's my list...
1. First of all it is the yards per touch. He is producing approximately 30% more yards per touch than Tebow and Ingram, even when you don’t count those 300 return yards. If I had included those return yards he would have averaged 10.1 yds per touch.
2. Look at the number of touches that result in a TD for each player. CJ scores a touchdown every 14.7 times he touches the ball. It takes Ingram 18 touches to get a touch down and Tebow 16.4 touches to get one. That said, which player's hands would you want the ball in when you need a score?
3. Keep in mind Tebow’s stats include passing yards & passing TDs which significantly skew things when comparing a QB to any other skill position. A good QB's total yards and TDs typically triple those of a running back or receiver. That makes Spiller’s numbers in comparison to a Heisman QB even more impressive. CJ still smokes him in TDs produced per touch and yds gained per touch even though I removed 300 of CJ's kick return yards.
4. CJ Spiller has been hurt since game one. As a result, he has played very sparingly against teams that we blew out. He had only 5 carries against Middle Tenn St., 9 carries against Wake Forest & 5 carries against Coastal Carolina. What that means is that his stats are not padded in games we played weaker opponents. His stats above were compiled almost entirely against our best opponents in what amounts to about 6 games, not 9.
5. Building on #4... CJ’s best games have come against our greatest competition. For example, of the 3 opponents Clemson played currently ranked in the top 12 (Georgia Tech, TCU & Miami), CJ Spiller averaged 177 yds from scrimmage per game with an average of 264 all-purpose yards per game and 4 TDs. Here are his Yds From Scrimmage/All Purpose Yds/ TDs for each: GT: 156/256/1, TCU: 191/227/1, Miami: 185/310/2. Find another player in the country that has numbers even remotely close to that CONSISTENTLY against top 10 competition.
Given the above stats, I think it becomes even more clear who the best player in college football is. Who would you pay the most to see play? Who makes you hold your breath the most, EVERY TIME he touches the ball? Who steps up for his team the most in the games that matter the most? Whose hands do you most want the ball in if you have one play left in the game and need a score? That is who should win the Heisman trophy.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Another major football commitment on the horizon?
Are you ready for Tiger Bball? You should be!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
Dare I say, I told you so?
When Auburn hired defensive guru Gene Chizik to replace Tommy Tuberville late last year, there was an overwhelming number of people who not only disagreed with the decision, but made fun and argued that it was the worst decision that could have been made. It’s not really my style to gloat, but I was not one of those people.
I’ll admit, when I first heard the news I was not excited. I got a text from my dad confirming the news and I was like, “Are you kidding me?” I wanted someone who had a proven track record for putting up big numbers on offense. I wasn’t thrilled to have a 5-19 coach come to the Plains.
But then I began doing my homework. I read A LOT of stories about Chizik and what he had to overcome at Iowa State. I quickly understood that it was a program in disarray before he arrived and he started 11 true freshman while there. It was obvious why he hadn’t won many games. I also looked at his experience and record as a defensive coordinator, which nobody can deny is second to none. Who else can say they coached three straight Thorpe Award winners? Had consecutive undefeated seasons with two different schools?
Then I began to hear what former players were saying about Gene Chizik. Carlos Rogers spoke out in support, telling how Auburn couldn’t have made a better decision. But of course he would say that. He went from virtually unknown on the national scene to becoming the nation’s best defensive back. But when Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams spoke well of him, saying he is a player’s coach that really knows how to get players to rally together and unite behind him, I was sold. Then came Kirk Herbstreit’s thoughts of how good of a fit Chizik would be at Auburn. Well that was just icing on the cake.
So I began telling people that I was sold and I thought he would be a good one. I can’t express to you how much criticism I got around here for supporting him. People called me an “Auburn homer,” and said I was simply trying to convince myself that it was a good hire. They went on to call him Cheez-it, and other such names. But I continued to believe in the new coach, even if I didn’t have much of a choice.
One thing people don’t seem to understand is that it does no good for people to criticize and belittle their own, so they might as well support them. While this was not my rationale, it was something I tried to impress upon other Auburn fans who weren’t quite as keen on Chizik as I was.
So as the offseason progressed, Chizik went on to hire the most prolific, up-and-coming offensive coordinator in the game, Gus Malzahn, and then hired two big-gun recruiters as offensive assistants, in Trooper Taylor and Curtis Luper, and a defensive coordinator, Ted Roof, who shared very similar beliefs as he, one of the best in the business. Then he pulled in Jeff Grimes, a laid back offensive line coach that many claim to be the best recruiter on the staff. He followed that up with a surprise hire out of North Carolina: the silent assassin Tommy Thigpen – one of the best recruiters in the country.
Over a span of just two months, Gene Chizik had come in and hired one of the best coaching staffs in the country, then followed it up with upgrading an already solid recruiting class to top 20, including pulling several four-star recruits that didn’t even have Auburn on their radar before he was hired.
Since then, all he has done is take a squad with severe depth issues and win seven games, including a few that Auburn wasn’t supposed to win this year. And he’s done it all with record-setting offensive numbers. The Tigers will now move into Amen Corner at 7-3, with a real shot at beating Georgia in Athens. But then will come the real test: the undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide. Can Chizik fare any better than his predecessor’s 0-36 mark last year? I don’t know. But I do know this: I told you Gene Chizik was a good fit and now you understand.