Auburn's defense: a roller coaster ride

Well, as many of you likely already know, Auburn's defense has seen its ups and downs this year. From holding Mississippi State scoreless, to giving up ridiculous numbers to Arkansas and West Virginia. Here's my take on that.

First of all, the defense was stellar when the year began. This is likely because the offense was doing its part. This can be taken in several ways. No. 1, when the offense moves the ball, the defense doesn't have to stay on the field as long. This means the players are fresher. When the players are fresh they play faster and smarter, thus limiting mistakes. No. 2, when the offense puts points on the board, it can motivate the defense to play better simply because it gives them a reason to go out and bust their asses. When the defense gives everything they have and still lose the game because the offense can't score, it has to be disheartening. Once the offense fell apart, so did the defense for exactly the aforementioned reasons, not to mention the injuries.

Secondly, the defense is built for speed. This is a plus and a minus. It's great to be fast and get to the ball. but if you can't tackle it doesn't matter how fast you are. That said, I think Paul Rhodes has some work to do. Auburn needs to continue to recruit fast players (I think speed is crucial in the SEC), but we also need to get some better tacklers. Not every position needs killer speed. Some of them need killer instincts and tackling ability. I think that's the sole reason Auburn lost to West Virginia - missed tackles, which therefore made the team look slow. 

That said, If Jerraud Powers and Sen'derrick Marks decide to stay for their senior seasons, I think Auburn will have one of the top defenses in the SEC, if not the country, next year.

Coming Soon: an assessment of Auburn's returning starters/players - as per the thoughts of Jonathan, the only person who has commented on this blog.

What happened to Brad Lester?

One looming question for the Auburn faithful is what has happened to Brad Lester?The guy was easily the best running back last season and was projected to be the same this year.

 

He is shifty and very quick and should have been a huge factor in the spread offense. But he wasn't. One reason for this has been his injuries. Lately, they have sidelined him but Saturday against UGA, he was healthy and didn't play a single snap.

Tuberville offered no real explanation other than saying he simply "didn't play." He said he wasn't injured or in the dog house. So what gives, coach?

Something isn't making sense. A guy like him doesn't just not play, there has to be a reason. The Tigers have been fairly thin on the depth chart at running back this season due to injuries, so why not spread the reps. But I'm sure the coaches had a reason.

Check this out: maybe Tubbs purposely held him out against UGA to try and fool Alabama into thinking he is now a non-factor. 

He is certainly the quickest of the Auburn backs, although not nearly the fastest. He is unlike any other Auburn player with the possible exception of Robert Dunn (hardly) and Philip Pierre-Louis. So if the Tide doesn't really prepare for him... he could be the punch in the mouth Auburn needs to win the game (see Trey Smith in 2002).

Anyone expecting to see Big Ben or Super Mario, both heavier than 210, would be hard-pressed to stop a guy like Lester, who is maybe 5-7, 185. Smaller backs can be a definite advantage -- just ask Oregon State with their 5-5 phenomenon, Jacquizz Rogers.

So maybe the coaches do have a plan; it would be a shame to waste a good back's final TWO games.

I'm a big Lester fan. It's nice to see a succeed on the football field who is literally inches shorter than me (I'm only 5'10" at most). I thought at one time that if he could put on some weight and retain his quickness, that he might be threat in the NFL, but it's starting to look like that won't happen, unfortunately. But we'll just have to wait and see what happens this week.

My prediction: If Auburn can utilize Lester and he gains more than 100 yards rushing, Auburn will win the game. 

Who will be AU's next OC?

I'm going to run down a list of Offensive Coordinators I would deem as either serious candidates or serious desires (or just amusing considerations) at this point:

-- one thing's for sure, whoever comes in as OC will likely need to bring in some assistants of his own. Unfortunately, I think everyone can now see where Auburn's past offensive woes have been coming from. 

Jimbo Fisher, currently the OC at Florida State University: Fisher was the quarterbacks coach at Auburn from '93 until '98, where his products include Stan White's senior year, Patrick Nix and Dameyune Craig. He coached under Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator Terry Bowden. He also was the OC and QB coach under Saban at LSU during his tenure. (Possibility: not good at all. Fisher is the Head-Coach in waiting at Florida State)

Tommy Bowden, currently unemployed, former head coach at Clemson University - recently fired. It would surprise the heck out of me if Bowden decided to take a step down to OC after being a head coach for more than 10 years. But if you think about it, it really wouldn't be a bad deal for for anyone involved. I consider CTB to be an offensive coach. When people think of his Clemson teams, they don't really think of great defense. Not saying the defenses weren't good, but it was the offenses that were great. 

Guys like Woodrow Dantzler (How's that for a Kodi Burns comparison), Charlie Whitehurst, Rod Gardner, Aaron Kelley and Travis Zachery come to mind. He also ran the "Hurry up, no-huddle" offense Auburn has been trying to learn. A move of this magnitude could be fantastic, as it could bring both coaches their first official National Championship. Just think of the possibilities with an Auburn defense and a Clemson-like offense. Bowden is also a ridiculously good recruiter. This is probably my favorite so far. Hey, David Cutcliff did it at Tennessee. (Possibility: unknown, but not bad. Desire: huge)

Patrick Nix, currently the OC at the University of Miami: Nix was a great quarterback at Auburn. He was half of the famed "Nix for Six" play that involved him coming in for an injured Stan White and throwing a TD pass to Frank Sanders late in the third quarter against Alabama. He led Auburn to a 10-1 record his junior year. Nix spent four years at Georgia Tech, working his way up from recruiting coordinator to OC/RB/QB coach. During his tenure, he helped recruit and coach guys like Tashard Choice -- 2005 ACC leading rusher -- and Calvin Johnson -- 2005 ACC leading receiver. (Possibility: fairly good. He has not been very successful at Miami. Don't know if he is happy or not)

Brandon Cox, who knows: this would be pretty wild. He has no coaching experience but knows the classic Tubbs offense. See previous posts. This one would upset some folks. (Possibility: very unlikely)

Stan White, currently a commentator for the Auburn Football Network Radio Network. White is a smart guy and was a great quarterback for the Tigers. He played under Pat Dye and Terry Bowden. He helped lead Auburn to a perfect 11-0 season his senior year. (Possibility: low)

Let's just say...

Another installment of Let's Just Say...

... Auburn fires Tommy Tuberville.

Possible successors are many. The names are out there and there are a ton of coaches who the University should consider as qualified to be head football coach at Auburn. Those names include:

Tommy Bowden: hopefully won't happen. He's a great coach, but we all saw what he was able to do at Clemson in a conference that's not quite so Defense-oriented. He's an offensive coach and I don't think he'd be a great fit at Auburn.

Will Muschamp: DC at Texas. Tuesday was named head coach-in-waiting at Texas. In addition to the vote of confidence from the school, he also will be paid $900,000 per year to remain as Texas' defensive coordinator. That's a ridiculous salary for an assistant coach. To give you an idea, I believe Auburn's assistant coaches make in the neighborhood of $200-300,000 per year. NO LONGER A POSSIBILITY.

Steve Spurrier: HC at South Carolina. This would be a very interesting move. Spurrier has found out the hard way that it is simply impossible to dominate at USC -- something he prides himself on. His ego is huge, and it may be a great match for Nick Saban's. He could be Auburn's answer to Saban.

The Old Ball Coach is a great recruiter who could rival Saban's recruiting and it would create a huge spectacle every November. Auburn is a much bigger stage than that at USC and I would think Spurrier would love to make such a move. 

He is typically regarded as an offensive coach -- a move that would be interesting for Auburn. But he has shown a new interest of late in defense. He is a more balanced coach than he was in his younger years and now might be the time for him to show a new level of success at a school with the same potential for success as Florida had/has.

The question is, will he also consider Tennessee? I don't think so. It's a different atmosphere and he is widely hated there. Auburn is close enough to Florida, a place where he has established recruiting pipelines, that this may actually be a possibility. We'll just have to wait and see. 

Mike Leach: HC at Texas Tech. Leach is a great coach, who is an offensive guru. This would be a move in the opposite direction than Auburn is currently going. But it is along the same lines as Tony Franklin wanted to go. Leach could be successful if he hires the right defensive coordinator, something he hasn't had in the past.

Leach has always had great offenses. In fact, this year's is not even his best. The problem with Texas Tech in the past has been their lack of any resemblance of a defense. The emergence of a mediocre defense this year is the reason for Texas Tech's success this year. So he would have to bring in the right supporting cast. 

Is this likely? I would say it is a definite possibility, considering the attempt to ink Bobby Petrino several years ago. And word is that he isn't happy in Lubbock. Theonly question is whether his personality would go over well on the Plains, a place where football is taken very seriously. I think he would be fine here, but for some reason I'm just not feeling it. 

Nick Saban: Only if he wins the title at Alabama. This snake in the grass is liable to do anything for the right price. News update: WE DON'T WANT HIS KIND AROUND HERE. Loyalty is a big deal on the Plains.

Lane Kiffin: former coach of the Oakland Raiders. Was an assistant under Pete Carrol at USC. Kiffin should be a good head coach in college, theoretically. But that's only considering what his defenses did at USC. But you have to remember that USC is the only real football school of note on the West Coast and recruiting there would be similar to recruiting at Florida if FSU and MIAMI suddenly didn't play football anymore. Of course, Cal is out there too, along with Oregon, but those teams are too inconsistent.

Kiffin could be a good choice, but I think he's too much of a gamble. I don't even know if he knows where Auburn, Ala. is located. He could, however, bring an NFL mentality to Auburn, something that seems to be working well for Alabama.

Bill Cowher: former coach of the Pittsburg Steelers. This guy's name has been thrown around quite a bit lately and I think it's all just a bunch of speculation. He has never coached in college and would be quite a gamble for that reason. Could he handle the more fragile ego's of college kids? I don't know.

Plus, he has been seen around the campus of Clemson, so I don't think he is really a possibility at all.

Paul Rhodes: current DC at Auburn. Rhodes is a likeable guy who many consider to be on his way to a HC position. Rhodes teaches fundamental defenses and is trying to overcome Auburn's lack thereof this season. Rhodes handles the media well and might just be a great choice, if Auburn decides to go that route. I think he would do it. And to be honest, it wouldn't upset me in the least.

I like his personality and I think the players like him. He has built a sense of unity and pride through the defense this year and anyone who has been paying attention knows I love a defensive-minded head coach. He would definitely have to bring in a good OC, but I don't think that would be a problem for him. I think this is a pretty strong possibility.

Butch Davis: HC at North Carolina. Davis is one hell of a football coach. He brought Miami back from the depths of embarassment toa national championship before he left for the NFL. And his players gave Larry Coker a championship the next year. He is a great recruiter and he knows what he is doing. However, He is reportedly very happy in North Carolina and inside word is that Tennessee is after him pretty hard. The simple timing of it all may exclude Auburn from the mix. Davis would be one of the top choices for the job, however, and I think most of us would love to have him. But I don't think Davis is willing to leave UNC, especially for an SEC job. He knows all about the difficulties a HC in the SEC has, having declined offers from several SEC powerhouses in the past. This is not a good possibility.

Bobby Johnson: HC at Vanderbilt. Johnson has done a fantastic job at Vanderbilt and also a did a great job at Furman when he was there. He obviously knows how to win. Anyone who can make Vandy bowl-eligible is a great recruiter and a great coach. But for some reason I don't see him as a very good fit at Auburn. Whether or not he is interested is unknown. But I do know he is one of the top candidates for the Clemson job and having roots in South Carolina, I would say him becoming the next HC at Clemson is probably a done deal. For Vandy's sake, I would hate to see them lose him and fall back to the depths of failure. For that reason, he may not go anywhere. Also not a good possibility.

As other names emerge, I will post them along with my thoughts...

Let's just say...

This is going to be a series of posts that pose different hypotheticals... stay tuned for the next post!

Let's just say...

... Auburn beats Alabama: If Auburn can find a way to beat Alabama in two weeks, it would mean a couple of things. 

First, Tommy Tuberville would definitely be back next year. There's no way Auburn trustees would fire a head coach who has beaten Alabama seven years in a row. Enough said.

Second, Tuberville would very likely to have to dismiss one or more of his offensive coaching assistants, who have almost all been with him since before he became the coach at Auburn in 1998. So who would he keep and who would have to go? Later posts will address this.

Third, Nick Saban's "process" would have to wait at least until a third year to reach completion. Note, he won his national championship at LSU in his fourth year with the school, with a record of 13-1. His offensive coordinator: Jimbo Fisher. Defensive coordinator: Will Muschamp.

Fourth, Auburn would have another huge recruiting tool. Currently, the Tigers have one of the nation's top 15 recruiting classes. The coaches think it's one of their best, which means these kids are VERY good. From what I understand, most of their commitments are very solid, but a victory in the Iron Bowl might just be enough to steal a recruit or two from Bama (or others, but the outcome of this game probably wouldnt affect it). 

Chances are, this one is a stretch. But an Auburn victory could turn the tide, so to speak, as it should signal that Auburn is not ready to hand over the reins to the state just yet. Losing shouldn't mean this either, because Auburn's overall talent level only rises next year, but you really never know what a high school kid might be thinking.. especially if he's dumb enough to consider becoming a Bammer.

... Auburn loses to Alabama: If Alabama does what the experts say should happen and beats Auburn, it could spell major changes for the Auburn football program.

First, Tommy Tuberville may likely lose his job. Reliable sources say the trustees at Auburn may already have Tubb's $6 million buyout in place. If he can't pull of a miracle and de-rail a championship-bound Bama team for the seventh year in a row, Auburn may join the ranks of Clemson and Tennessee in the search for a head coach.

Now, this is probably not the best option for Auburn Athletics as finding a suitable replacement may prove difficult. The Tennessee job is widely considered more prestigious and the likelihood of landing their first target would be relatively low (however, see Alabama's most recent coaching search).

Second, Tommy Tuberville will almost definitely have to dismiss one or more members  of his loyal offensive coaching staff. All signs point to Greg Knox, but Steve Ensminger may be an option as well. Knox's performance has been mediocre-at-best, although he is a terrific recruiter. Ensminger just hasn't shown a whole lot either way. 

I think Eddie Gran is definitely safe. Same goes for Hugh Nall. Both have taken two- and three-star recruits and transformed them into First Round NFL draft picks.

Third, Auburn will continue to improve over the offseason and come in next year to a mostly successful season. If Tuberville is still the coach, I expect it should be a great season.

Disappointed, but finally on track

The Auburn football team definitely suffered a disappointing loss Saturday afternoon, but I believe they showed a lot of heart and a lot of progress. 

In a 17-13 loss, the Tigers were able to do some things we haven't seen all year -- including playing an entire game.

On the game's final drive, I was sitting there wondering if Kodi Burns was capable of leading the team down the field and putting them in a position to win the game. Turns out he was ready and did it. Then came the final series. Auburn quickly gained 9 to make it 2nd and 1 from the 14 with less than 30 seconds remaining and no timeouts. Second down went awry and Burns' third down pass fell incomplete in the corner of the endzone. So it became fourth down and 1 from the 14 with 7 seconds left.

At this point, I'm thinking we might see Burns fake a throw and take off running toward the left side of the field and try to reach the endzone. I thought at worst he would get the first down, go down -- stopping the clock -- and then rush up to the line and spike the ball to get one more chance. But instead the coaches decided the game would end on that play, for better or worse. So Burns threw the fade to the corner for Ben Tate -- a wrinkle we haven't really seen this year -- and it fell incomplete. Like most Auburn fans, I was a bit stunned and had that pitted feeling in my stomach.

As it set in that Auburn had just lost to Georgia and just barely, I began to think about the playcalling decision on the last play. 

I thought, how much better would it have been if Burns had run on that last play? Then I thought, you know what, how many times has the game come down to the end like that and the quarterback does end up running and everyone is mad and asking why didn't they take a shot at the endzone? So there it was. The game came down the the final play and Auburn tried to throw for the victory -- a move that was actually a bit unexpected for a change. So for that call, I give credit to Steve Ensminger. 

Now, looking back, would a Burns run toward the front corner of the endzone have been successful? Possibly. I feel like he could have gotten the first and gotten out of bounds. But in the end, what would be different? Auburn likely would have still faced a do-or-die situation, only they wouldn't have had as much room to work with and almost certainly would have been forced to run the ball.

But give a lot of credit to Kodi Burns for making a mature decision on the last play. He knew he couldn't afford to be brought down in the backfield and he knew the speed of the UGA defense. He trusted his arm and I'm proud of him for that.

On to other things... Where was Mario Fannin in the fourth quarter. This man almost single-handedly scored the only two touchdowns of the game for Auburn and suddenly he's not in the game when it's on the line?? He didn't appear to be injured while he was standing on the sideline next to Coach Tuberville. Why wasn't he on the field. 

I can see it now: With 30 seconds and forty yards to go, throw a screen to Fannin and let Super Mario go to work. It should have been worth a shot. But oh well, it didn't happen. Tuberville said Tate was in the game because he is a better pass blocker. I trust Tubb's decision, but have to wonder. I guess I'm just another Auburn fan who is looking for something to make me feel better about this season. 

So on that note, congrats to Auburn for appearing to finally get on track. It was a typical Auburn-Georgia game and Auburn just came up with the short end of the stick -- it happens. But you know what, it gives me a little hope going into the Bama game. All I have to say is, Bama better not be looking ahead to Florida.

How to make this season "successful"

Well, if Auburn is to escape this season with any pride, there are a few things that must fall into place.

First, the Tigers really need to beat UGA tomorrow (see previous post). 

Second, Alabama needs to beat Mississippi State tomorrow.

Third, Auburn needs to beat Alabama Nov. 28, catapulting them into a decent bowl game.

These two wins, with one coming over NO. 1 ranked, undefeated Alabama, would indeed salvage this catastrophic season. Now, that said, defeating UGA is not the most important, it would simply be icing on the cake. Bama is the important game - the implications are huge.

Not only would it show that even a mediocre-at-best Auburn team can defeat a Bama team that hasn't lost a game -- it would be huge for recruiting in the state (Alabama already has the upper hand, and really always has, even when they were down for the last fifteen years) -- but it would also put the final touches on the scapegoat campaign Auburn has tried to put on Tony Franklin.

What Auburn must do to beat UGA

If the Tigers have any chance of beating the Dawgs, they must find a way to effectively run the football. That starts with the offensive line. Contrary to what has happened in the previous 10 games, the O-line MUST open some holes.

If the line re-figures out how to be tough and does it's job, Ben Tate and Brad Lester should have a good day and honestly, I don't quite understand why Tristan Davis isn't in the mix. Davis is the only Auburn back this year who actually has pure breakaway speed. His speed makes him a playmaker - something the coaches have been looking for. Of course, there's always Mario Fannin, too. Consider him the unknown in this equation. If he can hold onto the football he could be very valuable.

The other factor to the running game is, of course, Kodi Burns. Burns could have another big day against UGA. But don't count on it. Nothing against UT-Martin, but Georgia's linebackers are MUCH faster than theirs. In my humble opinion, linebackers are the key to an effective running game from the quarterback. Burns should have no trouble getting through the D-line, but the next level is the problem. He won't be able to run away from Georgia's LBs like he did against Martin.

The other key to victory is, of course, special teams. Wes Byrum needs to make his kicks. But more importantly, Clinton Durst needs to have his best game of the year if Auburn is to win this game. Robert Dunn and Davis will get their return yards to set up the offense. So if the offense can stay on the field and give UGA a long field to play on when they can't, things should go well.

Notice that i didn't mention the defense. That's because the defense should be fine as long as the offense does it's job and the special teams are effective. The problems Auburn has had on defense stem largely from staying on the field too long. Plus, i didn't want to talk about how thin Auburn is in the secondary - there's not really an answer for that. But if I could give one piece of advice, it would be this: TACKLE. I'm not sure all of Auburn's players truly know what this means - a tackle is that funny thing that happens when you bust you ass to get to the ball carrier, put your arms around him and don't let go until he falls to the ground. But they better figure it out.

However, I would like to see a few more blitz packages from Paul Rhodes. That could force Matthew Stafford into making some mistakes.

Auburn's next offensive coordinator?

This is quite a stretch for my first Auburn football blog, but it’s something that’s been on my mind for quite a while: who will be Auburn’s next offensive coordinator. Not only who will Tuberville want, but who would even consider taking the job after the precedent we’ve set? I hope what I’m about to say doesn’t make everyone discount my opinion, because it’s simply food for thought.

Something my dad and I talked about around the time of Tony Franklin's dismissal was where is Brandon Cox nowadays? As I'm sure most of you know, he is our former QB and winning-est QB in school history. It might be a stretch, but I’m thinking he could be a good dark horse (very dark) candidate for the offensive coordinator job - kind of like Mike Bobo at UGA and Patrick Nix, previously at Ga Tech - or at least quarterbacks coach.

Cox was a very smart QB  and a good game manager who could come in and teach the classic Auburn offense if they decide to go away from the spread next year, which I suspect they might do, especially after Tuberville’s evaluation at the end of the season. Tubbs kind of has a history of saying one thing and then doing another. I love the guy, but sometimes it's difficult to trust what he says. Like most coaches, he's going to say what he thinks he needs to say - kind of like a politician.

One reason Cox might be a good candidate is because he wouldn't be so quick to leave or get fired if he struggled at first. He also knows the coaching staff and bringing him in would provide the continuity the offense has lacked this year. But wait, the real question is this: would the wonderful Auburn faithful - trustees included - put up with such a move. He wasn't always the most popular QB, despite his ridiculous win-loss record. In fact, he was hated at times. 

Anyway, assuming ol' B. Cox isn't really up to much these days, maybe he could get a shot, or at least come in as the QB coach and possibly OC-in-waiting or something while he gets experience.  I'd like to see it. Does Auburn even have a quarterbacks coach? Of course, but you wouldn't know it b y watching them play. I’d also like to see Stan White in consideration, but he’s got the radio gig and I think he’s pretty happy with it.

On a related note, I believe Tubbs is going to be asked to dismiss at least one member of his loyal offensive coaching staff. That said, I think our WR coach is suspect, at best. Greg Knox is a great recruiter and I believe he is a valuable member of the coaching staff, I’m just not sure he teaches good technique. We’ve had pretty decent talent at the position, but none of it seems to materialize. When guys like Devin Aromashodu come in as five-star prospects and have to sign free-agent contracts in the NFL at the end of their careers because they didn’t get drafted, something isn’t right. I’m not saying it’s definitely Knox’s fault that our passing game is ineffective year-in and year-out, because the quarterback position hasn’t exactly been loaded with talent either.

But in my mind, he certainly isn’t helping things. Think about it. We’ve had receivers who are pretty good - Aromashodu, Ben Obomanu, Anthony Mix, Ronney Daniels, Courtney Taylor, Rod Smith – but lack that certain something that makes receivers successful at the next level. One thing I’ve noticed is a lack of that killer instinct when the ball is in the air. Auburn hasn’t had a receiver who goes up to get the ball since Frank Sanders in the mid-90s.

Now, one possible explanation for this is that we simply aren’t signing high caliber wide receivers like the Floridas, Georgias and Alabamas of the world, but that’s hard to believe with Auburn’s reputation for developing talent. Something’s got to give, and Tuberville’s renewed commitment to recruiting the skill positions is definitely a step in the right direction. But it’s just one step. Somehow Auburn’s going to have to find a way to develop the talent at the WR position (Rod Smith aside).

Anyway, the Brandon Cox idea is a pretty big stretch of the imagination and is really just something that popped into my head.